Killing of career diplomat Mr. Andrey Karlov is fast becoming the Duke Ferdinand moment for the world. When Ferdinand was killed, no one at that time thought that the incident can lead to a World War. Something like that might happen soon.
Russia under Putin is a tough state which doesn’t hesitate in taking tough decision to protect its national interests. The entire country is in anger seeing the video of its diplomat being killed in broad day light ahead of hundreds of people while camera was shooting his soon-to-be-started speech.
Vladimir Putin is calculating all options. He is completely aware of NATO angle and knows that the Russian attack on Turkey may escalate into a World War.
What Will NATO Do?
Turkey is a NATO member. And, Article 5 of this treaty clearly dictates that an attack on one member country will be taken as a case on other also and hence should be protested jointly – even militarily. When Russia will attack Turkey, treaty may compel the USA and other NATO states to retaliate.
If the rest of NATO countries defend Turkey, there will be World War III. There is no doubt about this.
If they don’t – it will effectively mean collapse of a powerful military treaty – NATO.
Donald Trump May be the TRUMP Card
It will be interesting to see how Trump administration handles this situation. As a matter of fact, Trump has already said that he considers Article 5 as garbage. He may not honor commitment. He is already being seen in a good relation with Putin. If Trump chooses not to honor Article 5, there may not be any World War. Obviously, the world will want Trump to do something which may not seem to be in the interest of the USA, but will definitely help the mankind.